PROBABLE Prediction 2001.3

Submitted 17th June, 1996 by SalesSense
[email protected]

Prediction:

The impact of technology in 2001 on mail and car usage.

Objective measurement:

Has the volume of snailmail reduced by more than 10% on 1996 levels? Has the real cost of owning a car increased by 50%

When:

31st December 2001

Why:

Five years from now, most homes will have a Web terminal. Will we still have real shops to walk around? Television was widely predicted to kill radio. Radio was widely predicted to kill newspapers. Going out to shop or browse is enjoyed and will continue to be a leisure pursuit. Web services will cater for the stressful side of shopping. Travel arrangements, theatre and cinema tickets, restaurant bookings, greeting cards, flowers and gifts can be arranged via the Web today. DIY supplies, spare parts and consumables will soon be available. Products will be customised for smaller and smaller customer sets, adding value in exchange for profit. Delivery services will flourish, taking over from postal services. Some of you will remember when the baker, the butcher and the greengrocer would call at your door several times a week. These services will become commonplace again. As demand grows, your doorstep delivery service will bring you all the items ordered on the web, within 24 hours or less. Most written communications, personal and business, will be sent by email. Hard copy letter post will be in dramatic decline. Service providers for water, gas, electricity, telephone and entertainment will submit their bills via email. Web home administration and finance services will be tailored to individual needs. Personal financial planning services will proliferate. Structured education and training for all age groups, on almost every topic, will be readily accessible, convenient and inexpensive. The phenomena of parents educating their children at home will attract media attention and local government debate. The number of people working from home will have tripled.

Flat screen wall hanging televisions will be affordable. Television shows will involve more home audience interaction. Televisions will incorporate digital picture viewing for pictures captured with digital cameras. Most VCR and Camcorder equipment will be digital. Old fashion chemical based film will be very expensive. Film developing will have increased in price.

Motoring will cost about 50% more in real terms than it does now. The increase will come from higher road and fuel tax. We will also be paying tolls to use motorways, just as they do in France today. Private motor vehicles will be excluded from many more town centres. Some of us will be driving electric cars, taking advantage of government tax breaks. In certain weather conditions, air pollution will be a serious health hazard, particularly in large towns and cities. Concern about pollution will be near the top of popular electoral issues list, along with law & order, health care and education. Incentives for energy efficiency will be offered by the government.

Four times as many people will have mobile telephones. Call charges will be less than half their current rates.

Further comments:

See links on http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/SalesSense

I suspect the only thing wrong with this prediction was the timing -- car ownership hasn't gone up 50% yet, but the snail-mail part is definitely right - GdB